Bitcoin (BTC) traders are increasingly optimistic about the cryptocurrency's price, with many anticipating it could reach as high as $70,000 in the near term. This bullish sentiment is driven by a more favorable macro environment and the prospect of a crypto-friendly U.S. administration under Donald Trump.
The market has been buoyed by a reduction in selling pressure from key wallets and a more positive political outlook for the crypto sector. Despite recent volatility and concerns over Mt. Gox repayments, the rebound in the Bitcoin price indicates a more optimistic outlook in the near-term macro environment.
Lucy Hu, senior analyst at Metalpha, shared that the market was encouraged by Trump's vice presidential pick, which indicates a more crypto-friendly administration and policies. Hu noted that BTC could hover around the 120-day moving average and potentially rise to $68,000 or even $70,000, but continued monitoring of Fed policies and implications of Mt. Gox repayments is necessary.
Bitcoin showcased rollercoaster price action in the past few weeks, dropping to as low as $53,500 in early July as wallets from defunct exchange Mt. Gox started their bitcoin repayments, triggering bearish predictions. However, favorable developments have since put bulls back on track. Wallets linked to the German state of Saxony have emptied their entire stack of bitcoin, and Republican candidate Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance has ushered in renewed hope.
Trump has picked Ohio senator JD Vance, a crypto-friendly figure, as his 2024 running mate. In 2022, Vance held as much as $250,000 worth of BTC. This change in perspective on the digital assets industry in the U.S. is creating expectations of more favorable policy toward Bitcoin and crypto as the elections look to capture single-issue voters and special interest groups.
There is also less expected selling pressure in the long term as Mt. Gox distributes funds to creditors. The odds of Trump winning the 2024 elections have shot up to 69% from 60% in the past week, according to data from betting application Polymarket.
The 120-day moving average is a widely used technical indicator that sums price data over time to determine a trend's direction. This average is often used as a long-term indicator to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements.
The market's optimism is also reflected in the reduced selling pressure from key wallets. The emptying of wallets linked to the German state of Saxony has significantly reduced the selling pressure on the market, contributing to the bullish sentiment.
Overall, the combination of a more favorable macro environment, reduced selling pressure, and a potential crypto-friendly administration under Trump is driving the bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market. As the U.S. elections approach, the market will closely monitor Fed policies and the implications of Mt. Gox repayments to determine the direction of Bitcoin's price.
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