The latest developments indicate that President Joe Biden's odds of securing the Democratic nomination for the 2024 presidential election have overtaken those of Vice President Kamala Harris on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket.
Prior to Biden's upcoming press conference, the likelihood of him dropping out of the race surged by around 6 percentage points to 65% on Polymarket . This increase in the probability of Biden withdrawing from the race comes amid widespread calls from prominent Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, for the president to step aside due to concerns over his age and mental acuity.
Concurrently, Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic nominee have declined by 16 points to 38% on a separate Polymarket contract . In a third Polymarket contract tracking the presidential election outcome, Biden's probability of winning has decreased by 4 points to 10%, while Vice President Harris stands at 19% and the presumptive Republican candidate, Donald Trump, holds a 61% likelihood of victory.
These developments on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, suggest that market participants are increasingly factoring in the possibility of Biden stepping down and Harris emerging as the Democratic nominee . The surge in Harris' odds, from 8% to 24% in the last 24 hours, indicates growing support for her as a potential replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket.
However, it's important to note that Harris still lags behind Trump in various national surveys, despite the increased backing on Polymarket . The crypto-based prediction market's assessments are not necessarily indicative of the broader political landscape and should be interpreted with caution.
Ultimately, the shifting dynamics on Polymarket reflect the ongoing uncertainty and speculation surrounding the 2024 presidential race, particularly regarding Biden's political future and the potential for a Harris candidacy . As the election cycle progresses, it will be crucial to monitor the evolving sentiments and predictions across various platforms to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the political landscape.
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