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Ohidul Islam
Ohidul Islam

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Solana ETFs and Huge SOL Gains a Real Possibility Under Trump

According to market maker GSR, a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could significantly boost the prospects for a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) and lead to massive price gains for the cryptocurrency.

Under the current Biden administration, Solana appears unlikely to get its own ETF in the near future. However, GSR believes that if Trump returns to the White House, he could shake up the established process for launching crypto ETFs, which typically takes years and requires the asset to have traded in federally regulated futures markets first.

Solana lacks this key prerequisite, but a Trump presidency could bring the changes needed for a SOL ETF to be approved much sooner, according to GSR Senior Strategist Brian Rudick.

Potential for Massive Price Gains

If a Solana ETF does launch, GSR expects the price of SOL to surge dramatically, potentially outpacing even the massive gains seen by Bitcoin after its spot ETF debuted earlier this year.

The market maker outlined three scenarios for Solana's potential price increase:

  • A bear case with a 1.4x price jump
  • A base case with a 3.4x increase

A "blue sky" scenario predicting an 8.9x rise based on optimistic inflow estimates

GSR believes Solana's price could surge even more than Bitcoin's because of the greater utility of the Solana blockchain across a wide range of decentralized applications and use cases.

Solana Ranks High on "ETF Possibility Score"

Considering factors like decentralization and potential demand, GSR has introduced an "ETF Possibility Score" that ranks Solana second only to Ethereum in terms of likelihood to get an ETF if additional spot crypto ETFs are permitted in the U.S.

The report concludes that "Solana is next, should additional spot digital asset ETFs be permitted in the US."

VanEck Bets on Trump Victory with Solana ETF Filing

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas sees VanEck's recent filing for a Solana ETF as a "call option on the POTUS election," suggesting the firm is betting on Trump winning and shaking up the SEC to make the approval more likely.

Balchunas believes a Trump victory could bring a significant change in SEC leadership, potentially installing crypto-friendly figures like Commissioner Hester Peirce as chair. This could dramatically shift the agency's stance on crypto ETFs.

However, Balchunas cautions that even with a Trump win, approval of the VanEck Solana ETF is unlikely before 2025 as the SEC will need time to deliberate.

In conclusion, while a Trump presidency is no guarantee, the search results indicate that it could provide a major boost to Solana's prospects for an ETF and lead to massive price gains for SOL if approved. The upcoming election will be a key factor to watch for Solana investors and the crypto market as a whole.

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